FUTURE TRENDS IN THE WORLD ECONOMY, FINANCE TECHNOLOGY AND SOCIO-TECHNICAL SYSTEMS - Prof. Dr. Mehmet ERDAŞ - TURAN-SAM : TURAN Stratejik Araştırmalar Merkezi - http://www.turansam.org









FUTURE TRENDS IN THE WORLD ECONOMY, FINANCE TECHNOLOGY AND SOCIO-TECHNICAL SYSTEMS - Prof. Dr. Mehmet ERDAŞ
Tarih: 27.12.2010 > Kaç kez okundu? 2603

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Berlin 24.12.2010







Keywords: Financial Crisis, Globalisation, interest rates mechanism, Uncertainty, Inflation and monetary growth, complex time scale, social redistribution, Stuxnet virus, IT network security.







The turbulence in financial markets could be counter - balanced by introducing new tax reductions and lower interest rates in USA and EU, leading to lower gold prices and more security for new investors. The Globalisation and financial measures should go hand in hand in order to balance the jumps in oil prices which cause enormous distortion in flow of funds and risk capital. The Countries like Brasil, Turkey, India, Russia and China are offering guaranteed net earnings up to 37% for foreign investors. The global aggregate demand and aggregate supply of financial resources should be matched by appropriate interest rates and financial stimulus mainly consisting of tax reductions and lower interest rates allowing more liquidity and profitability against more worldwide risk absorbing decisions.The political and financial stability in the Middle East and Pakistan play a significant role for keeping peace in the world. The involvement of Turkey in Irak could make the power game more simple.







According to Swiss Banks, the enforced US economic growth measures would not be able to keep the strength of US Dolar in World markets. Both Euro and US Dolar will be losing currencies in 2011, as the jump up of gold prices indicate. BRIC Countries, Brasi,Russia, India and China are financing the deficit spending of US economy through their savings. US Citizens are consuming more than they produce. This imbalance should be counter-balanced in world scale, as aggregate demand and supply, in ex-post sense. Through interest rate adjustments or by printing more money through the Central Banks or US Federal reserve, will not solve the structural problem of idle capacity and unemployment in the world economy, leading to more inflation, causing more loss inreal assets value. The conflict of interest between US and Europe, and BRIC Countries should lead to a new monetary system in the world. China is already buying more Uranium and Gold instead of US Dolar or Eurobonds.















Since 1980, there has been a significant change in the location of world economic activity. A greater proportion of world economic activity is now located in Asia, with China and India undergoing significant economic growth in recent years and a projected increase of global economic output in the future. Twenty years ago just 10% of manufactured goods came from developing and emerging countries whereas by 2020 the figure will be 50%. Developing countries are also increasingly involved in the services sector. The rates of growth in India in the services sector have been particularly significant. At the same time there has been significant growth in levels of capital flows with countries such as China, India, Brazil and Russia being significant destinations for foreign investment. (Source: World Bank and IMF).







In order to match the aggregate demand with aggregate supply on global economic scale, a new imaginary time scale accounting for the social redistribution of value - added profits obtained per se from interest rates mechanism by the banking sector and the cost of using scarce global energy resources leading to climate change and environmental pollution, has to be introduced into the interest rate definition. This would then prevent the structural idle capacity and lack of demand problems occurring periodically in world economy in cycles of almost every ten years. The worse effects of global financial crisis leading to a world war, like the Great Depression in 1929 led to Second World War in 1941-1945.







The energy content and size of products are going to decline (miniaturization) more and more. The new knowledge based materials economy of robotics, mechatronics or sensorconomy together with socio-technical networking could change all the existing individual preferences of consumption and well-known advertisement controlled behavioral patterns. Every hand-held mobile device is going to be a PC or mobile switching centre or base station, increasing the memory capacity of distributed networks infinitely. The introduction of a new complex time dimension with real - and imaginary components, could lead to a precise definition of power and measurability in social sciences.







The complete, end-to end automation and integration of many national and global economic and financial processes are going to lead to a new concept of money and capital markets, complex interest rates, a new global flow of funds totally decoupled from gold or precious metals together with a new global IT security system.







Thanks to introduction of new complex time scale with real and imaginary component, the end to end, stored program controlled intercontinental global IT networks with infinite memory capacity, enabling the perfect horizontal and vertical global integration, allow every individual the network access without limits, overcoming the Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle in Physics. The new time and space concepts are going to introduce new infinitely renewable energy resources, solving the energy problem, allowing the settlement of mankind in the universe. The Earth’s constraints on energy resources and climate will be changed totally in this new era.







The semiconductor physics and Boolean algebra has led to diodes and transistors, then to integrated circuits, networks, relational data bases, always more and more intelligence proportionate to memory capacity. If the mankind could realize new open networks concepts and new open source software architectures, enabling the infinite memory capacity first then the space will also be conquered by the mankind. The necessary new materials, sensors, networks with new hardware and software can only be realized by a new time perception and infinite memory capacity of future networks, the introduction of complex time scale into economics and finance, leading to completely new socio-technical projects financing with new resources and new complex value judgments leading to a new healthy well-educated highly knowledgeable individuals, based on a completely new production and consumption processes, new financial economy and techno-society.











The emerging powers of the twenty-first century will be based in Asia and Africa. The US and Europe are going to lose their power and influence in the twenty-first century. The alternative is the destruction of the whole world and perfect power balance in the universe through the mankind, as it was shown to mankind in Iraq and Afghanistan. The STUX.Net Virus design was the last western intelligence based attempt to avoid another similar disaster in Iran, which is planned to be latest in November 2012, the first possible completion date of anticipated Uranium enrichment process for nuclear bomb in Iran.















Prof. Dr. Mehmet Erdas







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